----- Error in the story ---- see below

 Update: I made a unexcusable mistake. Lucke was interviewed in 2012 as a Professor and not as a party leader. The soft stance of the FAZ is due to that not as I claimed growing standing of the party.
 I apologize.


The head of the German euro-sceptic party AfD Prof. Lucke, said in an interview with the FAZ that he thinks, Greek "bankruptcy is perhaps only a matter of weeks" away. Of course he might hope that this is the case, but it seems utterly unlikely, since the Cyprus disaster should have woken everybody in charge up to the fact that even the smallest member states are important, when it comes to the often mentioned "confidence".

More important than what he said, was the tone of the interview in my opinion. A few weeks ago the party was portrayed as right wing travesty. I wrote (see first link):

This one bulletin point party is and will be irrelevant. But it got the media in Germany all dizzy, because some right wingers also want the Deutsche Mark back and therefore AfD is Hitler or something. Also it is dangerous, naive and have I mentioned Hitler?

Just a Reminder

"Merkel is Hitler" is not an argument, "Merkel is just like Hitler" is also not an argument. This nonsense - in German eyes - just destroys any justified criticism you might have had. The only result you will get is a massive push back. Looking through the letters to the editor in a newspaper today, I only found people defending Merkel. Not one talked about policy. They were all about various Nazi nonsense, and some called for an end to all help, with others going so far to call for a break up of the EMU.

This reaction should be expected by anybody who has ever discussed on the internet or in general. You call one side Hitler and no matter what your other ideas were, this is the only thing that will be remembered. For example Juan Torres López had in his comment some interesting and discussion worthy statements. He also compared current German policy to Hitler's. See for yourself what happened.

So should your plan be to cause an end to the EMU, by decreasing German support, then you are on the right path, if you call Merkel Hitler. If not you are doing it wrong. How come people don't get, that if you demonize the other side, they will push back equally hard.

Bavaria and Hesse no Longer Willing to "Bailout" Other German States

Germany has a system of several mechanisms to ensure that similar standards of living can be achieved in all states. One of these is the "Länderfinanzausgleich". The system is rather simple at first glance: stronger states have to pay, weaker ones receive money. Bavaria and Hesse believe, that the current system is unconstitutional and therefore this week decided to file a suit before the Constitutional Court (Bundesverfassungsgericht BVerfG). Some believe, that this is just a maneuver before the election, so it might matter for European rescues, also.

BMW i3 Pure Innovation?

Something different. I like where BMW is going with their i3. Here is what I think about it:

The new compact BMW i3 model is a step forward for the company. The electric drive car will be available this Autumn. But it is not only BMW's first series produced electric car, it also introduces carbon-fibre-reinforced polymers in an industrial scale. The company risked a lot and here is why I think it will pay off.

NSU Terror - Just Another Mess Up

Next month the trial of the last surviving member and four helpers of the nazi terror group NSU begins. They murdered 8 small business owners of Turkish descent a Greek and a German police officer. No Turkish newspapers are allowed in. According to Sueddeutsche there are only 50 seats for journalists. The first ones to answer got the seats. Almost only Germans. I have written about the others so this was stupid, but probably the smallest mistake in a long history of messing up.

Just Can't Make This Up

One gets up in the morning, thinks that everything is messed up enough. Checks German papers: nothing new. Goes to Reuters and things go from ugly to crazyland.
Really, this is just madness:

No one knows exactly how much money has left Cyprus' banks, or where it has gone. The two banks at the center of the crisis - Cyprus Popular Bank, also known as Laiki, and Bank of Cyprus - have units in London which remained open throughout the week and placed no limits on withdrawals. Bank of Cyprus also owns 80 percent of Russia's Uniastrum Bank, which put no restrictions on withdrawals in Russia.

It was all for nothing? Because of something so large  that cannot even be considered a loopholeNow I have mentioned that I thought the whole handling of the crisis was aweful, but I never expected this.

This is, in my opinion, the fault of the Cyprus government, well at least partly since they are only in office for a few weeks, and it will damage their own population, depending on how much money "left" No matter how much money was taken out of the bank accounts this just makes everything worse.

Dijsselbloem Attempting to Cause More Damage

Update: in an attempt to make things even worse, there is now a half-assed denial by his office:

Cyprus is a specific case with exceptional challenges which required the bail-in measures we have agreed upon yesterday.
Macro-economic adjustment programmes are tailor-made to the situation of the country concerned and no models or templates are used.

This doesn't deny what he said earlier.

He stated that in fact they are from now on looking at uninsured deposits before forcing the tax payer to step in. He also said that there would be no guarantee for any further rescues. It is in fact a non-denial. Just stuff that has nothing to do with the important things he said. Look I just have to delete a question, and three words; and my first comment remains correct.

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Just a short note - according to Spiegel - Dijsselbloem decided it was about time to cause some more damage. Cyprus as role model for other rescues? So dear depositors in other countries that might face a new bailout, it is safer to get your money out of the banks.

Excellent plan there buddy. Why don't you just step infront of the press, that you want to end the Euro. This is exactly what your statement  really means. How is such madness even possible? Messing up royally as a rolemodel? Good night Euro!

Oh look I am being sciency

Update: the first title sucked and was unfair so i chnged it. 

While looking for comments on the Cyprus "deal", I stumbled across a "feminist" piece by Julia Voss on Archaeological and Biological anthropology. It is one of the most blatant examples of anti science literature - outside of religious fundamentalism - I have seen. The whole thing comes down to this:

Man are hunters, women gatherers? What nonsense.

 Even the arguments she uses in the beginning seem to be right out a creationist textbook.  Something about dinosaurs, science is changing therefore in the end our "science" will prevail. The only real difference I made out is, that she seems to think science is lying because of an evil patriarchy and not because it is evily anti christian.

The whole article boils down to a fundamental misunderstanding as to what the scientific method is. It is nothing but an attack at a straw man as I will show below the fold.

Cyprus Deal in the German Media

The day after the Cyprus "bailout/in", the German Media has a few comments to make:

Spiegel sees risk on the horizon. I personally agree with most that Stefan Kaiser wrote. But, there is something he gets wrong though (all my translations):

The only good thing in the Cyprus drama: It shows, that one can unwind an important bank and shrink another, without the financial markets going crazy.

No it does not show that at all. Compared to Cyprus' economy those banks where huge, but they have less total assets than Deutsche Bank has core tier 1 capital. These banks were important for the island only, in the grand theme of things, they just don't matter.

Cyprus Deal

A deal seems was reached between Cyprus, the troika, and the financial ministers of the Eurogroup. According to Bloomberg the deal

which is not yet final, calls for Cyprus Popular Bank Pcl (CPB) to be shut down and split. The Bank of Cyprus Plc would take over the viable assets of the failed bank along with 9 billion euros in central bank-provided emergency liquidity aid, according to three EU officials who asked not to be named because talks are ongoing.

The haircut for deposits above € 100.000 will be 40 % at Bank of Cyprus, while Laiki will see most of the deposits above that level wiped out.  There will be no vote in the Cyprus parliament.

I do not see how this alone solves anything at all. With capital controls now in place Cyprus will suffer economically. A lot of people will be unemployed after the shut down of Laiki. Even more will be affected indirectly. The message that deposits in other banks are not save is out there and it will slowly whittle down the bank deposits. Cyprus will now have a much higher debt to GDP ratio. At the same time it will face at least a heavy recession.